The principle of assumed error

Nice post from Russ Poldrack.

The principle is that whenever one finds something using a computational analysis that fits with one’s predictions or seems like a “cool” finding, they should assume that it’s due to an error in the code rather than reflecting reality.  Having made this assumption, one should then do everything they can to find out what kind of error could have resulted in the effect.  This is really no different from the strategy that experimental scientists use (in theory), in which upon finding an effect they test every conceivable confound in order to rule them out as a cause of the effect.  However, I find that this kind of thinking is much less common in computational analyses. Instead, when something “works” (i.e. gives us an answer we like)  we run with it, whereas when the code doesn’t give us a good answer then we dig around for different ways to do the analysis that give a more satisfying answer.  Because we will be more likely to accept errors that fit our hypotheses than those that do not due to confirmation bias, this procedure is guaranteed to increase the overall error rate of our research.  If this sounds a lot like p-hacking, that’s because it is